Scorebug Win Probability Orientation Bug

Project

major-domo / discord-app-v2

File

services/scorebug_service.py

Google Sheets Layout

The scorecard outputs:

C8 (all_data[6][1]): winning team's abbreviation
D8: that team's win probability percentage

Problem

Code was treating D8 as always the home team's win%, regardless of which team C8 named. This produced an inverted win probability whenever the away team was winning.

Fix

Read C8 and compare to the home team abbreviation (from game_state[4][1]).

winning_team_abbr = all_data[6][1]  # C8
home_team_abbr = game_state[4][1]

win_percentage = float(d8_value)
if winning_team_abbr != home_team_abbr:
    win_percentage = 100 - win_percentage  # flip to home team's perspective

ScorebugData.win_percentage is always stored from the home team's perspective.

Key Takeaway

When consuming a spreadsheet that outputs "winning team + that team's probability," always check orientation and normalize to a consistent perspective before storing.

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