CLAUDE: Make -6 and -5 arm ratings exceptionally rare

User requirement: Only 1 player with -6 arm, no more than 3 with -5 arm

2005 tz_runs_total data analysis:
- 23: Jim Edmonds (1 player)
- 21: Carl Crawford (1 player)
- 19: Coco Crisp, Brady Clark, Andruw Jones (3 players)
- 18: Cliff Floyd
- 17: Jason Michaels, Ichiro Suzuki (2 players)

Updated thresholds:
- > 22: -6 arm (Jim Edmonds only)
- > 19: -5 arm (Carl Crawford only, satisfies 'no more than 3')
- > 16: -4 arm (the three 19s plus 18s and 17s)
- Graduated scale for remaining tiers

Result: Elite arm ratings are now truly exceptional and rare

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

defenders/calcs_defense.py

@@ -385,24 +385,25 @@ def arm_outfield(all_arms: list):
 
     # Thresholds adjusted for tz_runs_total scale (ranges ~-8 to +23)
     # Note: These thresholds are for tz_runs_total, not bis_runs_outfield
-    if max(all_arms) > 18:
-        return -6  # Exceptionally rare (top ~2-3 players)
-    elif max(all_arms) > 14:
-        return -5  # Elite arms (~5-8 players)
-    elif max(all_arms) > 10:
-        return -4  # Very good arms
-    elif max(all_arms) > 6:
-        return -3  # Good arms
-    elif max(all_arms) > 2:
-        return -2  # Above average
-    elif max(all_arms) > -2:
-        return -1  # Average
-    elif max(all_arms) > -5:
-        return 0   # Below average
-    elif max(all_arms) > -8:
-        return 1   # Poor arm
+    # 2005 data: 23 (Edmonds), 21 (Crawford), 19 (Crisp/Clark/A.Jones), 18, 17...
+    if max(all_arms) > 22:
+        return -6  # Only 1 player (Jim Edmonds: 23)
+    elif max(all_arms) > 19:
+        return -5  # No more than 3 players (Carl Crawford: 21)
+    elif max(all_arms) > 16:
+        return -4  # Very good arms (19s, 18s, 17s)
+    elif max(all_arms) > 12:
+        return -3  # Good arms (14, 13)
+    elif max(all_arms) > 8:
+        return -2  # Above average (11, 10, 9)
+    elif max(all_arms) > 4:
+        return -1  # Average (8, 7, 6, 5)
+    elif max(all_arms) > 0:
+        return 0   # Below average (4, 3, 2, 1)
+    elif max(all_arms) > -4:
+        return 1   # Poor arm (0, -1, -2, -3)
     else:
-        return 2   # Very poor arm
+        return 2   # Very poor arm (-4 and below)
 
 
 def arm_catcher(cs_pct: str, raa: int, season_pct: float) -> int: