store: Fix: Win percentage orientation bug - sheet gives leading team's win%, not home team's

graph/fixes/fix-win-percentage-orientation-bug-sheet-gives-leading-teams-4c2c50.md

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+---
+id: 4c2c50d7-febe-43f6-a264-d586b24f49d6
+type: fix
+title: "Fix: Win percentage orientation bug - sheet gives leading team's win%, not home team's"
+tags: [major-domo, scorebug, win-probability, fix, orientation, google-sheets, discord-bot]
+importance: 0.75
+confidence: 0.8
+created: "2026-02-20T20:06:21.331952+00:00"
+updated: "2026-02-20T20:06:21.331952+00:00"
+---
+
+# Fix: Win Percentage Orientation Bug
+
+## Problem
+The Google Sheet Scorebug tab outputs:
+- `C8` = winning team abbreviation
+- `D8` = that team's win probability percentage
+
+The code was treating `D8` as the home team's win% unconditionally. When the away team was winning (e.g., DEN at 95%), the progress bar incorrectly showed the home team (MKE) as favored at 95%.
+
+## Root Cause
+`create_team_progress_bar()` always expects the value from the home team's perspective. The sheet does not guarantee that perspective — it gives the leading team's perspective.
+
+## Fix (`services/scorebug_service.py`)
+1. Read `C8` (`all_data[6][1]`) to get the leading team abbreviation.
+2. Compare it to the home team abbreviation from `game_state[4][1]`.
+3. If the leading team is the **away** team, flip the value: `win_percentage = 100 - win_percentage`.
+
+This ensures `create_team_progress_bar` always receives the correct home-team-perspective value.
+
+## Key Detail
+Sheet row/column indices (0-based):
+- `all_data[6][1]` = C8 (leading team abbreviation)
+- `game_state[4][1]` = home team abbreviation
+
+## Closes
+Issue #38 (implied by scorebug bug batch). Branch: `fix/scorebug-bugs`.