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+---
+id: 8ce81bc9-3bce-44a9-89e8-c01e54e6df7a
+type: fix
+title: "Fix: Scorebug win probability orientation — C8=winning team, D8=percentage"
+tags: [major-domo, scorebug, win-probability, google-sheets, fix, data-orientation]
+importance: 0.7
+confidence: 0.8
+created: "2026-02-20T20:30:15.225730+00:00"
+updated: "2026-02-20T20:30:15.225730+00:00"
+---
+
+# Scorebug Win Probability Orientation Bug
+
+## Project
+major-domo / discord-app-v2
+
+## File
+`services/scorebug_service.py`
+
+## Google Sheets Layout
+The scorecard outputs:
+- **C8** (`all_data[6][1]`): winning team's abbreviation
+- **D8**: that team's win probability percentage
+
+## Problem
+Code was treating D8 as always the **home team's** win%, regardless of which team C8 named. This produced an inverted win probability whenever the away team was winning.
+
+## Fix
+Read C8 and compare to the home team abbreviation (from `game_state[4][1]`).
+
+```python
+winning_team_abbr = all_data[6][1]  # C8
+home_team_abbr = game_state[4][1]
+
+win_percentage = float(d8_value)
+if winning_team_abbr != home_team_abbr:
+    win_percentage = 100 - win_percentage  # flip to home team's perspective
+```
+
+`ScorebugData.win_percentage` is always stored from the **home team's perspective**.
+
+## Key Takeaway
+When consuming a spreadsheet that outputs "winning team + that team's probability," always check orientation and normalize to a consistent perspective before storing.